Marketing 2.MUCH

I’m seeing a trend.  Granted, I live in somewhat of a microcosm that isn’t necessarily indicative of what’s going around in the rest of the (Western) world.  I think in this case it is.

Let’s talk about Facebook.  Rousing success.  Tens of millions of users, stole people away from MySpace.  Converted old people who didn’t even know what social networking was.  My stepmother is on this site.

How’d they do it?  Obviously differentiation: seeing MySpace’s shortcomings (phishing, invasion of privacy, scandal, trolling, pedophilia, SPAM) they made Facebook, in my colleague Itai’s words, look like the login to a bank:

The site was clean, somewhat exclusive (until opening up to non-edu addresses in 2006), and virtually impermeable to trollers (you could only see profiles of people who confirmed a friend request).   They also offered many grandma-proof features; photo uploading and tagging is a good example.  Good times.

But, they weren’t really making any significant money — the downside to every social network; that nasty “value capture” problem.  But, plodding on, they reasoned that improving user experience, building a larger user base, and getting people more and more addicted to this thing would continue building value, and the capture problem would get worked out in due time.  Perhaps this is still true — their $15B valuation seems to suggest that it is: we often criticize companies like Microsoft for agreeing to such a ridiculous sounding valuation, but believe me, they’re not stupid.  Assuming companies are just out of their minds usually isn’t a safe bet.

But let’s forget about that for now.  Whether Facebook stands to make significant profits and justify its forecasted cash flows that lead to an NPV of $15B (hint: >$2B/year in free cash flows [profit] over each of the next 30 years is one way) is a discussion for a finance class.  But I’m illustrating this point because Facebook’s future success depends on their most base assumption, that their users will create this value for them.

And this is where I find it hard to believe that Facebook in particular, and social networking as we know it in general, is going to be creating so much value not even in the next 30 years, but in the next 30 months.   Things may look great on paper; 40 or so million users, expanding and taking over new geographic markets, taking over people’s lives…but let’s talk about the first warning sign of failed marketing: declining consumer sentiment.

The problem, in my eyes, began with MySpace.  It went from being the most novel waste-of-time to what’s been called the “trailer park of the internet“.  What created this? Like I said: trolling, SPAM, lack of security (i.e. phishing and hijacking profiles), a cumbersome, ugly design, and a general feeling of “gee this is a *crappy* waste of time.”  Most of these effects are byproducts of too much openness to too many people.  This is what locked in Facebook’s success.

I’ll call the Facebook Platform, launched in May 2007, the beginning of the end for Facebook.   At the time, Michael Arrington referred to this as a major differentiating feature, ironically, against MySpace.  Ironically, because I see this as quite the opposite.  Let’s compare: the major “downfall” of user experience for MySpace was external — too many people sending SPAM, too many bogus friend requests, too much phishing.  The same is happening to Facebook.  As of late, I’ve been receiving daily requests to my account (which includes receiving countless emails) for applications that I’ve never heard of, usually without any explanation of what they do.  Any functionality or poking around requires installing the app, and all this gets broadcasted to everybody and propagates the virality of the app.  Great stuff for the developer of the app, but what if the viral element being spread is downright annoying?  This results in virality of annoyance, and that, coupled with the countless event requests, group requests, tagging notifications, friend detail requests, is starting to sound a lot like MySpace.

We’re missing the fact that high consumer awareness does not equal positive consumer sentiment.  Bugging me every two seconds and giving me something to do has diminishing returns.  These are opt-out, mind you; I could reduce the load but most consumers don’t opt-out of specific, abstract features hidden in some dashboard.  They leave.

But this is fine for the app developers that don’t have much on the line.  Trouble for Facebook in their Platform endeavor is that the interests of their “partners” developing applications are not aligned with Facebook’s.  Facebook set out to provide people a secure, comfortable way to keep in touch and have fun with their group of friends (though they’ll tell you their vision is to become the “social operating system” of the internet).  Now third-party appmakers are setting out to squeeze as much value out of these networks as possible, and they don’t have the same risk as Facebook in doing this (i.e. they can move to any other social network — Facebook only has its users, who are interested in keeping in touch and having fun with their group of friends, not using a…um…”social operating system”).

This is causing the “enough already!” reaction in not only a few of us.  And I’m not sure what’s going to happen after that…I don’t see us all flocking to yet *another* social network.  This is causing all the newcomers to the idea of social networking in the first place to dismiss it as another waste of time.  The entire industry is for the most part already saturated; we all know about social networking now but I don’t think that means we’re going to continue to embrace it (page views have roughly leveled off):

I’m not sure what the solution will be, or where we’ll go to stalk our friends and share photos.  Maybe “Inbox 2.0” will replace this, i.e. an unobtrusive social layer above your email account rather than a separate social network.  I’m open to suggestions, but in the meantime, I’d advise marketers not to bank the future on the “power” of social networks as ad network.